One in Six Species May Become Extinct by 2100 Due to Climate Change

A total of one in six species may become extinct by 2100. Scientists have found for every degree that global temperatures rise, more species will become extinct.

In order to better understand extinct rates, the researchers conducted a meta-analysis based on data from previously published studies.

"We can look across all the studies and use the wisdom of many scientists," said Mark Urban, one of the researchers, in a news release. "When we put it all together we can account for the uncertainty in each approach, and look for common patterns and understand how the moderators in each type of study affect outcomes."

Overall, the researchers predicted a nearly 3 percent species extinction rate based on current conditions. If the Earth warms another three degrees, the extinction risk rises to 8.5 percent. And if climate continues to change on this trajectory, the world could experience a rise of 4.3 degrees by the year 2100, which means a 16 percent extinction rate.

That's not to say that all species affected by climate change will become extinct. However, there will undoubtedly be changes to contend with. In fact, even species not threatened by climate change could experience substantial changes in abundance, distribution and their interactions with other species.

"It's hard to predict change, but in the end, we have one climate to contend with," said Urban. "With living things, we are dealing with millions of species, none of which act precisely the same. In fact, we may be surprised, as indirect biologic risks that are not even recognized at present may turn out to have a greater impact than we've ever anticipated."

Most interesting is that the risk of species loss is most acute for continents that have unique climate ranges and with native species that can survive only in a limited range. Yet these regions are some of the least studied.

The findings reveal the importance of halting climate change and starting conservation efforts early in order to preserve these species.

The findings are published in the journal Science.

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