How to Predict the Next Megaquake: Scientists Study Large Quakes

First Posted: Feb 05, 2016 08:42 AM EST
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Scientists may have found clues that might help them predict the next megaquake. Scientists may be able to better forecast large quakes based on periodic increases and decreases in the rate of slow, quiet slipping along fault lines.

In this latest study, seismologists looked at the more than 1,000-kilimeter-long fault off northeast Japan, where the devastating 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake originated, generating a tsunami that killed thousands. There, the Pacific Plate is trundling under the Japan plate, not only causing major earthquakes but also giving rise to a chain of Japanese volcanoes.

In all, the researchers studied 28 years of earthquake measurements, looking at quakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater between 1984 and 2011. They found 1,515 locations off the coast of Japan where small repeating earthquakes happen-6,126 earthquakes in all.

An analysis of quakes found that larger, more destructive earthquakes occurred much more frequently when the periodic slow-slip was fastest. This included the great Tohoku-oki earthquake, which also devastated a nuclear power plant and led to widespread radioactive contamination.

"The persistence of the periodic pattern over time may help us refine earthquake probabilities in the future by taking into account the times of expected slow-slip pulses," said Robert Nadeau, co-author of the new study, in a news release. "Right now, seismologists give forecasts on a 30-year time frame and assume nothing is changing on a shorter time scale. Our study points out that things are changing, and in a period way. So it may be possible for scientists to give shorter time ranges of greater and lower probability for larger events to happen."

In fact, the researchers found a relationship between the "snaps" on the small, strong patches where earthquakes happen and how much slip took place on the quiet fault surrounding them. This could help researchers better predict larger earthquakes in the future.

The findings are published in the journal Science.

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