Staggering 97 Percent of Northwest Alaska's Animals May Experience Habitat Change

Change may be coming to the north. Scientists have discovered that of the 201 bird and mammal species that call northwest Alaska's arctic and subarctic region home, roughly 97 percent of them could experience habitat loss stemming from climate change in the future.

In this latest study, the researchers used three approaches to project changes in vegetation and land cover through the 21^st century along with wildlife-habitat relationship models. This revealed what might happen to ecosystems and wildlife habitats with rising temperatures and associated drivers.

In the end, the scientists found that up to 52 percent of the 201 bird and mammal species in the studied region in Alaska would experience habitat expansion under the models. About 45 percent would see a decrease in habitat, and 3 percent would experience no habitat change.

The species that will have habitat expansion include those occupying forest and tall-shrub habitats, such as grouse and black bear. Those with habitats that will contract include those who occupy meadow and low-shrub habitats, like the ptarmigan and caribou in addition to most of the small mammals that form the prey base for larger carnivores and raptors.

"Climate is changing in the arctic far faster-by some estimates, twice as fast-than in lower-latitude temperate regions," said Bruce Marcot, one of the researchers, in a news release. "This makes the arctic, in a way, an 'early warning system' for the rest of the continent, making projects of changes in the region a very important scientific tool."

The new research reveals that changes will impact animals in this region. While some habitat will decline, other habitat will expand. How this will impact the animals and the food chain, though, remains to be seen.

"It is a first approximation and not a definitive prediction of changes in wildlife population sizes to come, so continued studies will help refine our predictions and likely provide some surprises as the region continues to change," said Marcot.

The findings are published in the journal Climate Change.

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