NASA Satellites May Predict River Floods Five Months in Advance

Could we predict floods? NASA satellites may just give researchers the data they need in order to do so. The satellites can greatly improve predictions of how likely a river basin is to overflow months before it actually does.

Inland flooding causes an average of 133 deaths and $4 billion in property losses per year in the U.S. This means that being able to predict these floods could be a huge boon when it comes to preparation and risk prevention.

In order to determine how much of an impact satellite data might have on flood prediction, the researchers analyzed the catastrophic 2011 Missouri River floods. After examining these floods, the researchers found that factoring into hydrologic models the total water storage information from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission (GRACE) could have increased regional flood warning lead times from two months to as long as five months.

That's not all, either. A review of the 2011 Columbia River floods also showed that warnings could have been issued about three months before they occurred with the satellite data.

"GRACE data contain important hydrologic information that is not currently being utilized to estimate regional flood potential," said J.T. Reager, the lead author of the new study, in a news release. "This could significantly increase flood prediction lead times within large river basins."

The findings show that the two GRACE satellites can provide a way to observe monthly variations in total water storage within large river basins. This, in turn, can help researchers predict the chance of floods in an area.

"These data can show us when river basins have been filling with water over several months," said Jay Famiglietti, the senior author of the new study. "We're not talking about actual flooding but about the saturation level of the ground and its predisposition to flooding. When it finally rains and the basin is full, there is nowhere else for the water to go."

The findings are published in the journal Nature Geoscience.