Storm Waters Overflowing Manhattan's Sea Wall 20 Times More Likely

First Posted: Apr 23, 2014 12:49 PM EDT
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New York's Manhattan is at risk for flooding during major storms, such as Sandy. Until recently, though, researchers didn't realize how much of an issue it was. Now, scientists have taken a closer look at the Manhattan sea wall and have found that the odds of storm water overflowing it are up 20-fold.

Storm tide is the amount that water levels rise during the storm. It includes both the storm surge, which is the abnormal rise in water generated by the storm above sea level, and the predicted astronomical tide. This can help predict how much flooding an area might expect.

The scientists analyzed tide gauge data in order to better understand how storm surge today differs from that of 170 years ago. They found that major, "10-year" storms hitting New York City today actually causes bigger storm tides and potentially more damage than an identical storm would have in the mid-1800s. More specifically, there's a 10 percent chance today that a storm tide in New York harbor will reach a maximum height of nearly six and a half feet. In the mid-19th century, in contrast, that maximum height was about 5.6 feet.

"What we are finding is that the 10-year storm tide of your great-, great-grandparents is not the same as the 10-year storm tide of today," said Stefan Talke, one of the researchers, in a news release.

In fact, the researchers found that Manhattan can expect to have waters top the seawall about once every four to five years. In contrast, it was once every 100 to 400 years during the 19th century.

It's possible that climate change and increasing global temperatures could be contributing to the increase in storm tides, though there could also be local factors, such as deepening shipping channels.

The findings reveal that New York is vulnerable to flooding during storms. Now, scientists have to determine why that is. If it's local factors, then steps could potentially be taken in order to help curtail the impact of rising waters during storms.

The findings are published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

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