Climate Change Impacts Cotton: Productivity up by 2050

When it comes to climate change, cotton may be king. Scientists have discovered that while a changing environment threatens most crops in Cameroon in Africa, its impact could be far less on cotton cultivation. In fact, productivity should improve significantly by 2050, according to new research.

In order to learn a bit more about how climate change might affect crop yields, researchers made observations in stations and plots from 2001 to 2005 and in 2010 in North Cameroon. The scientists simulated the impact of climate forecasts for the next 40 years on the growth of cotton plants. In order to do so, they calibrated and then applied the crop model using several farming techniques and six climate scenarios.

So what exactly did the scientists discover? It turns out that the predicted .05 degree Celsius rise per year may actually increase the annual yield. In fact, cotton should produce 1.3 kilograms more per hectare, rising to more than 2.5 kg per hectare. This increased yield could be due to increased carbon dioxide, which would have a fertilizing effect on cotton. This fertilizing effect, according to models, would offset other impacts of climate change.

So why would cotton fare so well in comparison to other plants? Excess water actually threatens runoff with increased runoff, leaching of soil and inputs needed for cotton cultivation. In other words, the drier weather associated with climate change in the area would be a boon to cotton fields.

That said, it doesn't mean that climate change will be all good. Other crops are likely to be negatively affected due to changing conditions. In addition, the effect of carbon dioxide on crop yield varies widely depending on what climate model is used. This could mean that the increased cotton production may not be able to offset other negative factors in the area.