Indian Monsoons May Fall 40-70 percent Due to Global Warming

First Posted: Nov 13, 2012 12:53 AM EST

Raising temperature and global warming could cause a failure in the Indian Monsoons which could dent the Indian economy for the next 200 years.

 A new study by researchers from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says that rising temperatures due to human interference and global warming could cause monsoon failures in India in the next 200 years. Any changes in the monsoons could have a direct impact on the economy of the country and the farmers will have long and troublesome years ahead.

These findings are published in a journal, 'Environmental Research Letters', by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

 The research claims that the end of this century and the beginning of the next could see a marginal increase in global temperatures and a change in the strength pattern of the Pacific Walker circulation in the spring season which in turn would affect the monsoons patterns. Pacific Walker Circulation refers to the conceptual model which shows the atmospheric circulation of air over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This could result in constant and severe changes in monsoon rainfall.

 The phenomena of Walker circulation brings high pressures of airflow to the western Indian Ocean, but in the years to come, the differences in sea temperatures or El Nino, as it is called, will see the air pressure patterns shifting eastward. This will cause high pressures in India and the Indian monsoon will get suppressed in its developing stage in the spring.

 Indian monsoons could fall from anywhere between 40 to 70 percent below normal, according to the study. These figures were unprecedented in the researchers' observational record taken from Indian Meteorological Department dating back to 1870s.

"Our study points to the possibility of even more severe changes to monsoon rainfall caused by climatic shifts that may take place later this century and beyond," Jacob Schewe, the lead author of the study, said in a statement from Institute of Physics.

These findings are published in a journal, Environmental Research Letters.

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