Massive Solar Storms May Be Predicted More Than 24 Hours in Advance With New Tool

First Posted: Jun 09, 2015 01:31 PM EDT
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Scientists may have created a new way to predict solar storms more than 24 hours in advance. They've developed a new way to track large magnetic storms that could influence Earth's communications.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of gas and magnetized material from the sun. CMEs have the potential to wreak havoc on satellites and Earth-bound technologies, disrupting radio transmissions and causing transformer blowouts and blackouts. CMEs can also cause problems with GPS technology and even affect the ability of aircraft systems to judge precisely a plane's distance from the ground for landing.

That said, not every CME from the sun is this strong. The power of the CME depends on the orientation of magnetic fields within the mass ejection. Currently, though, satellites can only tell the orientation of a CME's magnetic field with any certainty when it's relatively close to Earth. In fact, researchers only receive 30 to 60 minutes of notice.

"As we become more entwined with technology, disruption from large space weather events affects our daily lives more and more," said Neel Savani, one of the researchers, in a news release. "Breaking through that 24-hour barrier to prediction is crucial for dealing efficiently with any potential problems before they arise."

The researchers created a new technique which takes a closer look at where CMEs originate from on the sun. It uses a range of observations to track and model the evolution of the cloud. The model was tested against eight previous mass ejections and was able to improve forecasting.

The findings are published in the journal Space Weather.

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