Predicting Volcanic Eruptions: New Insight into the Behavior of Magma

Could we predict volcanic eruptions? We may be taking one step closer with some new research. Scientists have found a little bit more about how lava dome volcanoes erupt, which may help develop methods to predict how an eruption will behave.

In lava dome volcanoes, there's a process called frictional melting. This process occurs when magma and rocks melt as they rub against each other due to intense heat. This creates a stop start movement in the magma as it makes its way toward the Earth's surface. The magma sticks to the rock and then stops moving until enough pressure builds up. This pressure causes it to slip forward in a process called "stick-slip."

"Seismologists have long known that frictional melting takes place when large tectonic earthquakes occur," said Jackie Kendrick, one of the researchers, in a news release. "It is also thought that the stick-slip process that frictional melting generates is concurrent to 'seismic drumbeats' which are regular, rhythmic small earthquakes which have been recently found to accompany large volcanic eruptions."

The researchers analyzed lava that they collected from Mount St. Helens and from the Soufrier Hills volcano in Montserrat. They found the remnants of pseudotachylyte, which is evidence of a cooled frictional melt. In addition, scientist found evidence that the process took place in the conduit, which is the channel which lava passes through on its way to erupt.

"The closer we get to understanding the way magma behaves, the closer we will get to the ultimate goal: predicting volcanic activity when unrest begins," said Kendrick in a news release. "Whilst we can reasonably predict when a volcanic eruption is about to happen, this new knowledge will help us to predict how the eruption will behave."

Volcanoes can cause massive amounts of destruction, so it's important to be able to understand and possibly predict their behaviors. This study allows researchers to take one step closer to reaching that goal.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Geoscience.