World Population Explodes: UN Predicts Number of Humans to Reach 11 Billion in a Century

First Posted: Jun 13, 2013 01:45 PM EDT
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The world's population is exploding. We've already passed the 7 billion mile marker, but now it turns out that we're scheduled to shoot way past estimates by the end of the century. Although previous assessments had us evening out at 10.1 billion, it turns out that we'll probably reach 11 billion.

As the world's population increases, it becomes harder and harder for the planet to support all of us. Natural resources are depleted, space becomes limited and food production becomes a priority. Despite this, though, numbers have continued to skyrocket.

So what might cause this population increase? It's mainly due to fertility in Africa, where the UN once expected birthrates to decline more quickly than they have. While the current African population is about 1.1 billion, it is now expected to reach 4.2 billion by 2100.

"The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up," said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and sociology, in a news release.

Yet it's not just the African population that will go up. Other populations will increase slightly across the globe due to the possibility of longer life expectancies. Only Europe may see a small decline in numbers--mainly due to fertility continuing below replacement levels.

Yet while these estimates may give researchers an idea of population numbers, they're not set in stone. The UN has both high and low variants of its projections. The organization assumes that women will have an average of half a child more or less than even the best projection. This leaves a large uncertainty--from 7 billion to nearly 17 billion. That's in the range for potential world population by the end of this century.

The statistical models were developed to include the latest updated data collected by the UN in order to project the consequences of the fertility change in Africa. Yet new policies could potentially curb the rising numbers.

"These new findings show that we need to renew policies, such as increasing access to family planning and expanding education for girls, to address rapid population growth in Africa," said Raftery.

Whether or not new policies will be instituted in order to curb the rising tide of people, though, is another question entirely. That said, it's clear that something needs to be done in order to help slow down population growth. Otherwise, we may be in trouble.

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