Scientists Narrow Down Global Warming Estimates for 2100

In a groundbreaking new research, scientists from the University of Melbourne and Victoria University have provided a more reliable projection of global warming estimates in the year 2100.

Researchers discovered that the exceeding 6 degrees warming was unlikely, while the exceeding 2 degrees is very likely for business-as-usual emissions, according to a news release.

The study was led by Roger Bodman from Victoria University, with professors David Karoly and Peter Rayner from the University of Melbourne.

Published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the study was based on a new technique that combined various observations of carbon dioxide and global temperature variations along with simple climate model simulations to foresee the future of global warming.

According to Dr. Bodman, it was possible to further narrow the range. It is likely that major uncertainty in predicting global warming will remain because of the complication of climate change. A few uncertainties will always exist, for which researchers need to manage the risk of warming with the limited available knowledge.

"This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy," Bodman said in a press statement. "Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have."

In the study, researchers noticed that 63 percent of the warming was due to a single source such as climate sensitivity, followed by future activity of the carbon cycle and the cooling effect of aerosols. The remaining 37 percent occurs from a combination of other sources. This indicates that if any single uncertainty is lowered, be it the most crucial one such as climate sensitivity, the significant uncertainty will defiantly remain.

According to professor Karoly, the new finding reinforces the significance of strong action on climate change.

"Our results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2 degrees needed to minimise dangerous climate change," he said.