Greenland Glaciers Not Melting as Quickly: Sea Level Rise Slower Than Predicted

Climate change is melting Greenland's ice sheet at a rapid pace. But now, new research has shown that the ice may not melt as quickly in the future as we once thought. Computer models have revealed that the shape of the ground beneath the ice sheet could drastically impact how fast melting occurs.

Over the past decade, the melting seen on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been accelerating. This, in turn, has raised concerns over the possibility of runaway melting and global sea level rise. In order to better predict ice loss, researchers examined four of Greenland's major fast-flowing glaciers. More specifically, they designed a computer model for these glaciers that predicted a projected sea level rise contribution from these glaciers.

So what did they find? The researchers discovered that the glaciers contributed anywhere between two to five centimeters to sea level rise by the year 2200. That's far lower than estimates based on the extrapolation of current trends. These lower predictions are partly due to the fact that the models took terrain into account.

"I am excited by the way we have managed to create a detailed picture of the workings of the glaciers. It turns out that if the fjord a glacier sits in is wide or narrow it really affects the way a glacier reactions," said lead author Faezeh Nick in a news release. "The important role of the terrain below the ice shows we need to get a much clearer picture of the rest of Greenland's glaciers before we have the whole story."

While the melting may not be as fast as predicted, though, it's still occurring. Sea level rise will continue to be an issue, and is actually already affecting some Caribbean islands. This new study, though, reveals the importance of factoring in all influences in climate models. Failing to do so makes them far less accurate than they would otherwise be.

The findings are published in the journal Nature.