Climate Change: Risk of Major Sea Level Rise in England and Northern Europe

England and northern Europe may be at risk for some major sea level rise. Scientists have discovered that the seas around Scandinavia, England, the Netherlands and northern Germany will rise by as much as 1.5 meters this century.

"Even though the oceans are rising, they do not rise evenly across the globe," said Aslak Grinsted, one of the researchers, in a news release. "This is partly due to regional changes in the gravitational field and land uplift."

Gravity over the surface of the land and sea varies due to differences in the subsurface and surroundings. Essentially, the greater the mass is, the greater the gravity is.

As an example, the ice sheet on Greenland attracts the sea. This causes the water to become higher around Greenland. When the ice sheet melts and flows out to the see as water, this attraction is reduced and even though more water has entered the sea, the sea level around Greenland falls.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that an average global warming in this century will rise by four degrees Celsius if things continue as is. This, in turn, will cause sea levels to rise.

In this latest study, the researchers examined the UN climate panel's report on sea level rise and also examined what would happen with ice sheet melt in various regional locations.

"For London, the calculated best estimate is that sea level will rise by .8 meters," said Grinsted. "In England, a sea level rise of more than .9 meters in this century has been considered highly unlikely, but our new calculation shows that there is a 27 percent chance that this limit is surpassed and we can not exclude a sea level rise of up to 1.75 meters this century."

For the Netherlands, the estimate is .83 meters, though there's a 26 percent chance that it will exceed this estimate. Copenhagen, in contrast, should expect a .68 meter rise, but it's possible it could experience as much as 1.6 meters.

The findings reveal a bit more about sea level rise and show that if things continue as is, then cities may experience some unprecedented rises in sea level in the future.

The findings are published in the journal Climate Research.

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