Tropical Marine Ecosystems are Most at Risk of Exinction from Human Impacts

It turns out that animals and ecosystems in the tropics may be at risk. Scientists have used the fossil record during the past 23 million years to predict which marine animals and ecosystems are at greatest risk of extinction from human impact.

"Marine species are under threat from human impacts, but knowledge of their vulnerabilities is limited," said John Pandolfi, the co-author of the new study, in a news release.

The researchers found that the predictors of extinction vulnerability, geographic range size and the type of organism have remained consistent over the past 23 million years. This allowed them to use the fossil records to assess the baseline extinction risk for marine animals, including sharks, whales and dolphins, as well as small sedentary organisms such as snails, clams and corals.

"We used these estimates to map natural extinction risk in modern oceans, and compare it with recent human pressures on the ocean such as fishing, and climate change to identify the areas most at risk," said Pandolfi. "These regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions."

Identifying the regions and species at greatest risk means conservation efforts can be better targeted. The findings can help prioritize species and areas that may be at greater risk of extinction and guide conservation efforts.

"We believe the past can inform the way we plan our conservation efforts," said Seth Finnegan, lead author of the new study. "However there is a lot more work that needs to be done to understand the causes underlying these patterns and their policy implications."

The findings are published in the journal Science.

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