Climate Change and Global Warming to Continue Unabated Despite 'Hiatus'

First Posted: Apr 27, 2015 07:47 AM EDT
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There's been a lot of speculation about what may have caused the global warming "hiatus" seen over the past several years. Now, though, scientists have found that this slowdown will make no difference to how much the planet will warm by 2100.

"This much hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand," said Matthew England, lead author of the new study, in a news release. "This shows that the slowdown in global warming has no bearing on long-term projections-it is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation."

In order to separate short-term temperature variability from long-term temperature outcomes, the scientists evaluated 200 climate simulations and projected temperatures out to 2100. The researchers compared the models that captured the current temperature slowdown to those that didn't.

So what did the researchers find? Under the high emissions scenario, the difference in average projected end-of-century warming between the two groups of models is less than .1 degrees Celsius. That's just a small fraction of the projected five degrees warming if emissions are not curbed.

The warming is well beyond the two-degree threshold that's considered to be the "save limit" by the IPCC. The recent research shows that the study merely reflects short-term variability. Long-term global warming is still set to reach dangerous levels unless carbon emissions are reduced dramatically.

"Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations in global average temperatures, long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations," said England.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

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