Climate Change May Reduce World's Wheat Production by One-Quarter

Climate change is impacting our environment in unprecedented ways. Now, though, scientists have found that in the coming decades, at least one-quarter of the world's wheat production will be lost to extreme weather from climate change if no adaptive measures are taken.

In order to assess the impacts of climate change on wheat production, the researchers systematically tested 30 wheat crop models against field experiments from around the world that were conducted in areas where the average temperature of the growing season ranged from 15 to 32 degrees Celsius. The models accounted for planting dates, planting rates, temperatures and other crop management factors.

"It's pretty severe," said Vara Prasad, one of the researchers, in a news release. "The projected effect of climate change on wheat is more than what has been forecast. That's challenging because the world will have to at least double our food supply in the next 30 years if we're going to feed 9.6 billion people."

The scientists found that the effects of increasing temperatures on wheat will be more severe than once predicted and are actually happening sooner than expected. The warmer temperatures actually shorten the time frame that wheat plants have to mature and produce full heads for harvest, which results in less grain produced from each plant.

"It's like having one minute to fill a tall glass with water," said Prasad. "Under optimal conditions, we can fill that glass pretty well. "But now we're factoring in extreme temperatures that are affecting the growing window and grain size. So it becomes like trying to fill that same glass, but now we only have 40 seconds to do it and the faucet is running slower."

The findings may help researchers develop better models that can help inform farmers globally. This may allow farmers to select more weather-tolerant and resilient wheat varieties based on their location. In addition, they may be able to select the optimal planting date to reduce stress and minimize exposure to extreme weather events.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

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