Australia's Great Barrier Reef May Decline to Less Than 10 Percent of its Extent

First Posted: Jan 23, 2015 10:02 AM EST
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Australia's Great Barrier Reef is one of the natural wonders of the world. Now, though, scientists have found that this reef could decline to less than 10 percent of its extent if ocean warming continues.

Climate change has already caused the loss of more than half of the world's reef-building corals. Coral cover, a measure of the percentage of the seafloor covered by living coral, is now just 10 to 20 percent worldwide. The Great Barrier Reef, which was once thought to be one of the most pristine global reef systems, has actually lost half of its coral cover in just 27 years.

In order to assess future impacts to the Great Barrier Reef, the scientists examined warming trends. They found that a moderate warming of just one to two degrees Celsius would result in the high probability that coral cover would decline to less than 10 percent. In the short term, local human-made threats would cause corals to be overrun by seaweed which would, in effect, suffocate them.

"Even the massive, remote and intensely managed Great Barrier Reef is being degraded by human activites," said John Bruno, a marine ecologist, in a news release. "Losing the GBR and other reefs would be a massive blow to marine biodiversity and to the people that depend on healthy reefs for food, tourism, and protection from storms."

The findings reveal the importance of taking steps to protect these reefs. While the Great Barrier Reef can recover in the short term from damage due to global warming, the longer term future looks bleak. It's crucial to act now in order to help preserve the Great Barrier Reef and other reef ecosystems across the world.

The findings are published in the Journal of Theoretical Biology.

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