Fickle El Niño May Make a Comeback with New Kelvin Wave

While researchers thought that prospects for an El Niño event in 2014 were fading, they've now found that there may be the possibility of a comeback. Yet unless these developing El Niño conditions strengthen, the drought-stricken American West shouldn't expect any relief.

In the latest sea-level-height data recorded by satellite, researchers spotted a pair of eastward-moving waves of higher sea level, known as Kelvin waves, in the Pacific Ocean. That's the third such pair of waves this year. These warm waves appear as a large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights that huge the equator between 120 degrees west and the International Dateline. This wave could be an indication that El Niño may have another chance at affecting the world.

That said, it may be too early to get people's hopes up for drought relief. A series of Kelvin waves appeared from February through May 2014 and despite the hope for a significant El Niño event, none ever materialized. Instead, the waves dissipated.

"Since February 2014, the prospect of an El Niño has waxed and waned," said Bill Patzert of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in a news release. "This late in the season, the best we can expect is a weak to moderate event. What comes next is not yet clear. But for the drought-plagued American West, the possibility of a badly needed drenching is fading."

Currently, the scientists are continuing to monitor to Pacific to see whether something more develops with this wave. El Niño itself is an extensive weather pattern that has the potential to impact the entire globe, so watching to see if it develops or not is an important part of making predictions when it comes to future weather conditions.

The overview of 2014's El Niño prospects and Kelvin waves can be found on NASA's website.