Arctic Warming Linked to Fewer Harsh Winters and Cold Weather Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

It turns out that we may have to worry about fewer cold weather extremes in the coming years. Scientists have found that climate change is unlikely to lead to more days to extreme cold, similar to the ones that gripped the U.S. in an extreme deep freeze this past winter.

In the past, scientists have worried that climate change may cause extreme cold snaps that could greatly impact regions of Europe and the U.S. Yet it seems like Arctic amplification, which is the faster rate of warming occurring in this northern region in comparison to places further south, has actually reduced the risk of cold extremes across large swathes of the Northern Hemisphere.

In this case, the researchers examined detailed climate records. This allowed them to show that autumn and winter temperature variability has significantly decreased over the mid-to-high latitude Northern Hemisphere in recent decades.

"Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day," said James Screen, one of the researchers, in a news release. "Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days."

So why is this happening? It's mostly because northerly winds and associated cold days are warming more rapidly than southerly winds and warm days. Not only that, but these changes are likely to continue into the future.

"Cold days tend to occur when the wind is blowing form the north, bringing Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes," said Screen in a news release. "Because the Arctic air is warming so rapidly these cold days are now less cold than they were in the past."

The findings reveal that the cold snaps seen over the winter months in the U.S. are not, in fact, results of climate change. Instead, they're merely flukes as winters and autumns continue to become warmer and more temperate.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.