Species' Populations Need to be Stable to Combat Climate Change

First Posted: Jan 06, 2014 08:57 AM EST
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As our climate continues to shift and change, scientists are increasingly worried about how different temperatures will impact species populations. Now, scientists have found that stable population trends are a prerequisite for species' range expansion, which could help researchers make better choices when it comes to conservation in the future.

Over the last four decades, Britain's climate has warmed. Because of this many species, such as butterflies, have shifted their distributions northward. Yet the extent of distribution changes has varied greatly among species; while some have expanded rapidly, others haven't expanded at all.

In order to find out why this is, the scientists examined data on butterfly distributions and abundances that was collected by members of the public since the 1970s through "citizen science" schemes. More specifically, the researchers looked at factors limiting butterfly range expansion. They found that species that were previously restricted to southern England are now colonizing northern England and Scotland. This is due to the fact that warmer climates have made northern regions increasingly more hospitable. Yet this expansion is dependent on species' stability.

"Increasing habitat availability in the landscape has been suggested as a way to help species respond to climate change, but our research shows this will only be effective for species whose abundances are stable or increasing," said Jane Hill, one of the researchers, in a news release.

In fact, the researchers found that conservation management should consider existing population and ensure that species abundances are stable or increasing in order for them to be able to respond to climate change. Increasing the amount of natural habitat in the landscape is an important conservation goal, but it will not be effective for promoting range expansion by species whose populations are declining.

"My previous research revealed huge variation among butterflies in relation to their range expansion rates," said Louise Mair, one of the researchers, in a news release. "It's now clear from our new research that much of this variation can be accounted for once species' population trends are known."

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

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